MyDD :: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP

This poll will only work if 45% of the electorate comes from the Philly area. Can we find any proof that the Philly area has ever accounted for 45% of state-wide voters?!

This is just going to be spun in favor of lowering HRC's expectations.

This isn't even an outlier . . . it simply doesn't make sense to consider that SE PA will account for 45% of the statewide vote.

by SurfCityDEM4Life on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:46:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - Obama 49 Clinto (none / 0)

That's pretty standard, actually. Of Democratic voters, most live in SE PA, which includes Philly, Delaware, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester Counties. Most polls have a similar split.

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It sure looks like an outlier. (none / 0)

The weird thing is they have a huge sample >2300 respondents, making the MOE only +- 2. They broke the data down by age, race and gender and it breaks about the way you would expect. They included leaners in that 49-46 number but broke them out separately in the analysis which shows the demographic breakdown of leaners the same as solid choices.

They also break it down by area of the state showing Hillary winning where we expect her to win and Obama winning where we expect him to win. The size of the expected wins must be driving these numbers.

Neither campaign expects Obama to win PA...even though the PPP methodology was solid, 3 point lead is still only 1 point off the MOE. Turnout can push this either way.

No Way, No How, No McCain!

by GFORD on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:15:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - Obama 49 Clinto (none / 0)

Let's not get ahead of ourselves though.

However, if Obama pulls this out, it's over, Jack.

If you are not voting Obama, please let me know so I can replace your sorry ass with another new voter.

by Darknesse on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:43:24 AM EST

I wish... (none / 0)

...but I don't buy it. Clinton wins by 6-8%, but that's enough for Obama to win in the bigger picture.

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:43:27 AM EST

Obama at 49 is key (2.00 / 2)

The key thing about this poll is that Obama has finally hit higher than 44. He's at 49. When they pushed undecideds after the first screen (showing 47-43 for Obama) the margin barely budged. Clinton picked up 3 and Obama picked up 2 (we don't know if there is rounding go on here). Either way, all the undecideds did not go to Clinton.

Another thing: this had a HUGE sample. 2338 participants for a MOE of only 2.

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:45:17 AM EST

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - Obama 49 Clinto (2.00 / 1)

It is a turnout race...if turnout is high Amongst AA's Obama will get close.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:54:41 AM EST

An Obama victory is... (2.00 / 1)

...anything under -10%. An ACTUAL Obama victory, utterly unlikely, would probably mean the end of the primary.

by Lieber on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 10:58:26 AM EST

Pittsburgh is the key (2.00 / 1)

Philly is Obama territory and the rest of the state is Clinton territory. The only other substantial population center is Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh proper has a sizable AA population and is home to numerous colleges and universities. Obama should be able to do well in Pittsburgh proper, but the key, as always, will be turnout. If Obama gets a good turnout in Pittsburgh, it could be the difference between a >8% Clinton victory and something less. I still think an Obama win is highly unlikely. But <5% looks bad for Clinton - especially after the major drubbing Obama took in the "debate" last week.

by the mollusk on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:14:25 AM EST

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - Obama 49 Clinto (none / 0)

Meh. I doubt he'll win; certainly not by this margin if he does, it'll be Florida/2000 of a win. But he'll come close, closer than Ohio, and it'll be hard to spin that into a win for Clinton. But she'll try.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:16:19 AM EST

Re: We Have A Barn Burner (none / 0)

The PPP Poll assumes an AA turnout of 18 %,which is high compared to other polls (ave 15 %).

Since Obama gets 80 % of the AA vote at the least it straightaway adds 3 points to his tally.

by Rajesh on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:24:29 AM EST

Re: We Have A Barn Burner (none / 0)

The African-American turnout might be high relative to other polls, but 80% probably underestimates Obama's support among African-Americans. There has been a consistent Reverse Bradley Effect in the primaries, as Obama outperforms his polling. Getting 90% of African-Americans (which appears typical) making up 15-16% of the total voters will net him about the same votes as getting 80% of 18%.

The final round of polls are quite consistent except for PPP and ARG as outliers at either end of the spectrum. A narrow pyrrhic victory for Clinton appears to be the most likely scenario.

by CA Pol Junkie on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:48:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - Obama 49 Clinto (none / 0)

IF AA's are at least 11-12% of PA's population overall, shouldn't they make up about 20% of the Democratic electorate?

by Bobby Obama on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:28:50 AM EST

Even at 15% (none / 0)

Af-am turnout, this bodes well for Obama at least keeping it close.

by Davidsfr on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:25:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

FLAWED (none / 0)

Don't buy this poll people. Read the PDF file. How can anyone take this regional weighting seriously:

Q6 Region
Northeast PA ........................................ .......... 9%
Southeast PA...................................... ............ 45%
South Central PA ........................................ .... 10%
West Central PA ........................................ ..... 10%
Southwest PA ........................................ ......... 26%

by SurfCityDEM4Life on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:49:40 AM EST

Re: FLAWED (none / 0)

That's accurate, especially for a Democratic primary.

by elrod on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:12:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FLAWED (none / 0)

I am sure Obama hopes you are right.

by SurfCityDEM4Life on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - Obama 49 Clinto (none / 0)

did obama buy this poll or something?

by darlene25 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:50:25 AM EST

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - (none / 0)

LOL, the question is did McCain buy this poll?

Neither DEM wants a poll showing a close race. It would make HRC nervous, and it would ruin Obama's low expectations.

by SurfCityDEM4Life on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:55:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We Have A Barn Burner!!! PPP - Obama 49 Clinto (none / 0)

Yeah, because nothing helps a candidate more than inflated expectations. And nothing helps a pollster's business more than releasing terrible predictions that are at odds with everyone else's.

by Ryan Anderson on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You should ad a link to where they explain the pol (none / 0)

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

One reason I like PPP is they post their rational for the poll and explain it.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:17:29 PM EST

SUSA and PPP Have Both Been Sharp This Cycle (none / 0)

So if they are both right, within MOE, and allowing for rounding, the worst Obama could do is lose by one point.

If we figure in undecideds,there is still the possibility of a 6-8 point spread. But that would mean Hillary would need to all but sweep them. Even at 2-1,the margin would be at or within 5 points.

I don't think either PPP or SUSA are going to be totally off, so expect a result within this range.

by Davidsfr on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 12:24:18 PM EST

Re: SUSA and PPP Have Both Been Sharp This Cycle (none / 0)

I think the problem Obama has with late deciders is that he constantly loses them. If you look at the recent PA senate race; it seems like the pattern in PA is for undecideds to shift dramatically for one canidiate at around 70% to 80% clip on the day of the election; look at the Casey vs. Santorum polling for example, which had around 8% undecided two days prior to the election and Casey usually +9 or +10. He ended up winning +17. As long as Hillary keeps her strength with late deciders, I still think this will be a double digit win for her.

Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008

by zcflint05 on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 04:30:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This group's been accurate? (none / 0)

Here's the latest SurveyUSA report card of pollsters I could find (February 20). It ranks PPP 22 and 21 out of 38 pollsters on both median and average errors. That puts them in the lower-middle rankings.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surve yusa-report-cards/

by DaTruth on Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 02:25:18 PM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.