Today's Polls-amazing insight!

by RAULC, Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 01:37:34 PM EST

Gallup tracking shows a 5 point swing in two days-my best guess is that there was a one day outier that is affecting the results-we shall find out in two days. Diageo, on the other hand, has Obama ahead by 4 in the just listed poll. What is utterly amazing is that Obama leads a poll where the respondents stated that they voted for Bush over Kerry 48-35. In other words in a poll that is slanted +10 R, Obama leads by 4. I also must wonder if there is something wrong with this poll; but even if the slant is half of what is listed you may be seeing the beginning of the end of the Bush/McCain regime.    




Tags: Gallup, Diageo (all tags)

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Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

Which poll has Obama ahead in Oklahoma?


by Bobby Obama on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 01:44:16 PM EST

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

A mistake of some kind - maybe the map gets updated in a way whereby Oklahoma accidentally went blue along with its alphabetical neighbor Ohio.  My eyes boggled when I saw Oklahoma go blue this morning, but that has been corrected.


When I grow up, I want to be a superdelegate!
by robitude on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 02:33:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

Gallup , Pew are the most widely respected national polls in my view....


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 01:46:50 PM EST

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

Diageo is a very highly rated outfit. Pew leans D-Gallup rates above average but it is because their polls go all over the place and their average is around the middle- personally- I consider them reliable only one month out of the election when they adjust their swings.


by RAULC on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 01:52:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

No way! Zogby online interactive 4eva!!


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 01:53:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

any evidence? (none / 0)


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 03:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

Lori,
I don't have time to look this up now, but both http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ and pollster.com have done rigorous analyses to determine which polling operations have done the best job in the past.  I can't recall precisely, but I believe Gallup was not in the top tier. Furthermore, Moore over at Pollster recently did a careful analysis of the Gallup tracking poll and found that is figures were consistently below the nontrackers.
We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 03:27:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

It is a little troubling that Rasmussen and Gallup are now showing a significant dip (since they reinforce one another), but hopefully it's temporary if the remaining nights of the convention are strong.


by rfahey22 on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 02:00:13 PM EST

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (2.00 / 1)

Yup, and the pundits reinforce it, and we go round and round and round....

Not sure if I am counting on a big bounce from the convention.

This has been one of the most covered races ever, and I think people are already engaged, just not sure if 4 days of convention will change it a lot.

Never thought this would be a blow-out, expect to be watching at 3AM for the numbers from Colorado to finally come in...


On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!
by WashStateBlue on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 02:05:07 PM EST
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Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

You are so right.  The real issue isnt the polls but the talking heads who push the bs narrative of "Why is BO polls going down" when the fact is he is still slightly ahead and has really only be slightly ahead since June.

david


by giusd on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 02:13:13 PM EST
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Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

None of that matters. Most people don't pay attention to polls anyway. Frankly, I don't think they ever have. In 1936, the most well known "poll" (in parentheses because it didn't use random sampling), the Literary Digest poll predicted a huge Roosevelt loss and he had a huge win. There is no bandwagon effect.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 03:28:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (2.00 / 1)

For the very first time McCain comes out ahead in Gallup today.

The Clinton supporters who always assumed she would be BO's choice for VP are registering their displeasure with the ticket. Looks like a negative bounce for the VP announcement.


by 07rescue on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 02:05:49 PM EST

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

That could be true. On the other hand, it could be a single outlier throwing off the tracker.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 03:29:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

gallup has M46-O44 (2.00 / 1)

for a first time (and cleanly after Biden choice), McCain is ahead:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup -Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking. aspx
Landslide of lies
by engels on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 03:48:36 PM EST

Re: gallup has M46-O44 (none / 0)

Yep - That's what the diary said.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 04:02:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rasmussen has it tied, 46-46% (none / 0)

Most of these polls indicate that since the choice of Joe Biden, we have actually lost ground. Buyer's remorse, anyone?


by BJJ Fighter on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 04:11:13 PM EST

Re: Today's Polls-amazing insight! (none / 0)

Well, clearly the choice of Biden as VP has had a temporary adverse effect. Obama will likely get a small bounce after the convention. The thing is, the Republicans are counting on disgruntled Clinton supporters to win. Do you really think the level of Clinton supporters who will not vote or vote for McCain will stay at these high levels? I don't. Two months is a very long time in politics.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 04:22:41 PM EST


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